Illinois in Play? One Poll Hints It May Be

Posted by NosferatusCoffin | October 4th, 2012

Following last night’s lackluster performance in the first presidential debate and even more so, with the media and liberal pundits countrywide dumping on Obama for it, comes even more bad news. Or at least, potentially bad news.

It would appear, at least according to a few polls that have come out over the last 6-8 weeks, that Obama’s support in even such a staunch Democrat area as Cook County, IL is soft at best and vulnerable at worst.

In other words, Illinois could potentially be a state that is actually in play for the GOP.

Unthinkable four years ago, but far less so today.

From Breitbart:

A new poll of Illinois’ 10th Congressional District, which includes parts of Cook County, however, suggests the August poll might not be such an aberration. The poll, from WeAskAmerica, finds Obama with just a 2 point lead over Romney, 47-45 in the suburban district. Obama won the district in 2008 by 23 points.

This follows an earlier poll that showed Obama with only at 12 point lead in Cook County itself. Which is a pretty low number, all things considered.

More to the point is the methodology and populace of this district:

I should note that the sample in the poll is evenly split between GOP and Dem voters. That may be a bit generous to the GOP, but even this can’t explain the collapse in Obama’s numbers here. A drop of more than 20 points one month out from the election is damning for Obama. Of course, the poll also deliberately oversampled women. They make up around 65% of the poll’s universe. Given the purported advantage Obama has with women voters, his margin in this poll should be considerably higher.

As with all polling, it is but a snapshot and most polls should be looked at as trend-spotters and only relied upon to show such trends in three and six month increments. Not, as so many in the media do, a “consensus” or “mandate” from one poll, that is generally way oversampled with Democrats. However, since we are closing in on Election Day, these things can lay some foundations in a lesser period of time. Especially with debates, and more intense campaigning if the offing over the last six or so weeks before the actual election.

It also fits the narrative that I have been espousing on other sites, that this election most likely will not even be close.

Filed Under: 2012 Elections

Leave a Reply

XHTML: You can use these tags: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Submit Comment