Well, 24 hours before the polls close in tomorrow’s Baby Super Tuesday and things look pretty darn close. Although, Hill has re-opened up a bit of a lead in the Ohio polls according to Rasmussen:
For most of the past two weeks, Clinton had been stuck at the 47% to 48% level of support in Ohio while Obama steadily improved his standing from 38% right after the Wisconsin Primary to 45% last Thursday night. In that Thursday poll, Obama had pulled to within two points of Clinton. This is the first Rasmussen Reports election poll to show Clinton expanding her lead.
If Clinton wins a solid victory in Ohio on Tuesday, that might be enough to keep her from dropping out of the race. While most analysts say she needs to win both Ohio and Texas to have a shot at the nomination, the Clinton camp has recently given some indications that it might stay with a win in the Buckeye State and a close finish in Texas.
In Ohio, Clinton now leads by seventeen points among women while trailing by ten among men. Clinton leads among voters 40 and older while Obama has the advantage with younger voters. Clinton does better with workers earning less than $60,000 a year while Obama does better among those with higher incomes. The two candidates are essentially tied among liberals while Clinton has a significant lead (57% to 39%) among politically moderate voters.
The big thing here is she has a solid lead among women and not just older women. (Though the poll does not break those women by age). This a huge turnaround from the last dozen or so states, where her supposedly iron-clad hold on the Dem women’s vote had been totally turned upside down by Obama. As expected, she is doing well among the less affluent and the senior vote, while Obama continues to do well with younger voters.
Matt Lewis has an interesting blog entry today over at Townhall.com that makes some good, if a little convoluted arguments that Hillary is the tougher candidate for McCain to beat. Frankly, one of Obama’s so-called strengths is also one of his biggest weaknesses. That being that he is getting a lot of support from the younger voters. While that is fine and all, that is the by far the most unreliable demographic as actually going to the polls and voting in the general election. Hillary’s solid support from the senior citizen vote is crucial, since that demographic votes in higher percentages then any other. Especially on the Democrat side.
In Texas, it is basically too close to call as Obama has but a 1% lead in the latest Rasmussen Reports Poll:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey, conducted Sunday, finds Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Hillary Clinton. It’s Obama 48% Clinton 47%. Five percent (5%) are undecided and 6% say they could still change their mind.
These results show the race has gotten a bit closer in the past few days. Last week, Obama enjoyed a four-point lead and the Illinois Senator had been gaining ground steadily for two weeks. Now, it appears that Clinton has at least temporarily halted Obama’s momentum. It remains to be seen whether she car reverse it.
A similar pattern was found in Ohio. However, in the Buckeye State, Clinton never lost the lead and she now has a six-point advantage.
In Texas, most of Clinton’s rebound can be attributed to regaining solid support from Latino voters. The previous two polls showed Clinton ahead in this critical constituency, but with declining margins.
Clinton leads among voters over 40 and does especially well among those over 65. She also would like to see a big turnout from white women and Latino voters.
Again, Hill has the senior vote and her support among Lations seems stronger and growing. For all of Obama’s gains in the last few weeks, there seems to be a pattern over the last week or so of his tide starting to crest. I think there is a pretty decent chance that Hill wins both states tomorrow and if that is the case, then it is Katy-bar-the-door. As it stands, there are not enough delegates for either one of them to reach the magic number. That will probably portend a brokered convention and since we are dealing with the Clintons on one hand and the OBombUs, Daily-Kos type of escaped mental patients on the other, anything can and probably will happen.
This is all too delicious. Although I do wish that Steinem (who most people probably thought died year ago, along with her bra) would keep her moldy trap shut, as remarks like that do Hill no favors.